President Donald Trump promised voters during his 2024 campaign that his energy policies would slash gasoline prices below $2 a gallon within his first year in office, stating "My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office" at a September 2024 speech to the New York Economic Club [1]. However, fuel prices have surged dramatically instead, with gasoline and diesel prices forecast to be the highest ever recorded on an election day, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy [1]. As of Friday, the national average gas price stood at $4.20 a gallon, nearly 40% above the same period last year, while diesel prices have surged approximately 70% over the past year to $6.32 a gallon [1]. During the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, retail gas prices stood at $3.80 according to AAA data, making current levels significantly higher [1].
The spike in fuel costs has been driven primarily by Trump's decision to attack Iran in a joint operation with Israel on February 28, which triggered retaliatory strikes from Tehran on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, severely depressing oil flows through the vital shipping route [1]. De Haan noted that "Prices have never been this high this late in the year" and stated that "Trump got in his own way," noting that back in December, analysts had predicted 2026 would be the cheapest year for gas since 2020 without requiring policy intervention [1]. Trump acknowledged the trade-off at a Michigan rally, telling voters that rising fuel prices are a "small price to pay" to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon [1]. The White House responded through spokeswoman Taylor Rogers, stating "Once this conflict comes to an end, gas prices will drop drastically, and the Iranian terrorist regime will not have a nuclear weapon" [1]. The White House also argued that gas prices when adjusted for inflation have been higher around previous election days [1].
Gasoline and diesel prices have become a major political issue ahead of Tuesday's midterm election, with farm states like Republican stronghold Iowa becoming increasingly competitive due to the impact on voters [1]. While exports through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded since the summer as the U.S. military assisted ships through the strait, the Middle East disruption has continued to impact energy markets [1].
CONCLUSION
Trump's campaign promise to reduce gas prices below $2 a gallon has been undermined by geopolitical tensions with Iran, resulting in record-high fuel costs heading into the midterm election. With gasoline at $4.20 per gallon (40% above year-ago levels) and diesel at $6.32 (up 70%), energy prices have become a significant political liability despite the White House's assertion that the conflict is necessary to prevent Iranian nuclear development. The administration is banking on a resolution to the Iran conflict to deliver the promised price relief, but current market conditions represent a substantial departure from campaign messaging.