On April 9, 2026, oil prices rebounded sharply as skepticism grew regarding the effectiveness of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced two days earlier by President Donald Trump [1]. U.S. crude oil surged more than 7.5% to over $101 per barrel early Thursday, while international Brent crude rose 4% to about $99 per barrel as of 10:30 a.m. ET [1]. This uptick halted a steep decline in oil prices that followed the initial ceasefire announcement, with U.S. crude dropping more than 16% on Wednesday [1].
The rebound was driven by ongoing fighting in the Middle East and deteriorating ceasefire prospects, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz—a critical maritime chokepoint. ING commodities analysts noted that optimism faded after Tehran claimed several terms of the agreement had been breached [1]. Iranian media reported the Strait of Hormuz had been closed again following Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the U.S. of violating the deal, warning that 'ceasefire violations carry explicit costs and STRONG responses' [1]. Iran insists that a halt to Israeli strikes in Lebanon be included in any ceasefire deal, while the U.S. and Israel consider it a separate conflict [1]. The U.S. demands full reopening of the Strait, but Iran intends to police transit and collect tolls from passing ships under any agreement [1].
Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., emphasized on LinkedIn that 'the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,' underscoring the ongoing uncertainty [1]. He added that 'markets remain at a critical crossroads,' with the last cargoes transiting the Strait before the conflict now arriving at their destinations [1]. Ship traffic through the Strait has not increased since the ceasefire, with only four ships passing on Wednesday—the lowest level since March 31, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence [1].
Broader market reactions reflected these concerns. Gas prices continued their monthlong climb, reaching a national average of $4.17 per gallon on Thursday, per AAA data [1]. Equity markets also responded negatively: the S&P 500 opened lower by 0.2%, the Nasdaq fell 0.3%, and the Dow dropped 200 points shortly after the opening bell [1]. JPMorgan strategists noted that the market awaits certainty around the Middle East ceasefire, with U.S. and Iranian delegations set to arrive in Pakistan for further talks [1].
CONCLUSION
Oil prices have rebounded above $100 per barrel as doubts persist over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, driving continued volatility in energy and equity markets. The ongoing uncertainty and conflicting demands between the parties suggest that market instability may persist until a clearer resolution emerges. Gas prices and stock indices have also reacted negatively, highlighting the high market impact of these developments.