SpaceX options began trading following the company's recent initial public offering, with market activity signaling both significant optimism and caution among investors. According to Susquehanna, current options pricing suggests about a 15% probability that SpaceX shares will rise another 50% by September, while also indicating a roughly 13% chance the stock could fall by 50% in the same period [1]. This reflects a market divided on whether SpaceX can sustain the enthusiasm generated by its IPO.
On its first day of options trading, SpaceX recorded the fifth-highest call volume, with large trades appearing to be hedges against future supply risk, according to Susquehanna strategist Chris Murphy. Murphy noted that upside calls indicate demand for further sharp gains, while downside puts show concern over potential lock-up supply, valuation risk, and the possibility that the initial post-listing excitement may fade. He described the trading environment as challenging, stating, "The tails look too expensive to buy, but they also look too dangerous to sell" [1].
SpaceX's stock has continued to climb since its IPO on Friday, now up about 50% from its initial offering price. The company's market capitalization has surpassed Amazon and is approaching Microsoft's valuation, underscoring the scale of investor enthusiasm [1]. However, this rapid ascent has sparked debate about whether SpaceX can justify its lofty valuation.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, commented on CNBC that investors are currently trading on the excitement surrounding SpaceX and its CEO Elon Musk. He cautioned that, "at some point the rubber meets the road in terms of the fundamentals having to match up with that excitement." Boockvar added that while the upside potential exists if SpaceX delivers, the company's enormous valuation means it will need to demonstrate substantial growth, which he believes could take at least a couple of years [1].
CONCLUSION
The debut of SpaceX options has underscored both the high expectations and significant risks perceived by investors following the company's IPO surge. While options pricing and trading volumes reflect strong interest and volatility, analysts emphasize that SpaceX must deliver on its growth prospects to justify its current valuation. The market remains divided, with both bullish and bearish bets signaling uncertainty about the company's near-term trajectory.