The EUR/JPY currency pair traded in positive territory around 182.95 during the early European session on Friday, maintaining momentum near the 183.00 level as the uptrend persists above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) [1]. Uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate path is cited as a factor potentially weighing on the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that ongoing conflict in the Middle East could materially affect Japan’s economy, suggesting the central bank may keep interest rates on hold for an extended period [1]. However, BoJ board member Ryozo Himino indicated that the central bank would make necessary policy adjustments amid market volatility, and rates could move toward neutral if underlying inflation accelerates toward the target [1].
Escalating conflict in the Middle East is also noted as a possible driver for safe-haven flows into the JPY, which could act as a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross. US President Donald Trump commented that Iranian officials reached out to him to end the war, but he stated it was too late and that the US is pushing to completely destroy Iran [1].
Technical analysis shows that the EUR/JPY maintains a cautiously bullish near-term bias, holding above the 100-day EMA. The broader uptrend remains intact despite recent consolidation below the Bollinger upper band at 185.30. The RSI stands at 47.35, below the 50 midline, indicating modest upside momentum but no oversold conditions, which leaves room for renewed buying interest [1]. Initial resistance is at the February 26 high of 184.74, with further resistance at the Bollinger upper band at 185.30. A daily close above this level would confirm a continuation toward the 186.30 region. Immediate support is at the March 5 low of 182.11, with the 100-day EMA at 181.30 serving as a key structural floor [1].
Looking ahead, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak later on Friday, and the final reading of the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 will be published, which could influence EUR/JPY price action [1].
CONCLUSION
EUR/JPY is trading with a cautiously bullish bias, supported by uncertainty around BoJ policy and technical strength above the 100-day EMA. While geopolitical risks and upcoming ECB and Eurozone GDP events could impact the cross, the current market structure favors continued upside as long as key support levels hold. Market participants are watching for further developments in central bank policy and geopolitical tensions.