The GBP/USD currency pair is trading in a tight range around 1.3400 during Thursday's Asian session, as investors remain cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and upcoming US economic data releases [1]. The pair consolidates amid doubts regarding the sustainability of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, following continued attacks by Israel on Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon [1]. Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, stated on X that it would be 'unreasonable' to continue permanent ceasefire talks with the US, citing violations of three clauses in the 10-point proposal, which has renewed fears of a prolonged conflict in the region and weighed on risk-sensitive assets [1].
Market reactions reflect this uncertainty, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to near 6,770 and the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading marginally higher at approximately 99.05 [1]. Investors are also awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, scheduled for release on Friday. The headline CPI is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, up from the previous reading of 2.4% [1].
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD maintains a modest bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3325, indicating that downside attempts may be absorbed near this dynamic support level [1]. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 54, suggesting buyers retain near-term initiative and momentum is gradually improving [1]. Immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA (1.3325), and a break below this level could weaken the constructive tone and expose the pair to a deeper pullback. The path of least resistance remains tilted to the upside as long as price holds above the 1.3325 area [1].
CONCLUSION
GBP/USD is consolidating above key technical support amid heightened geopolitical risks and anticipation of US inflation data. Market sentiment is cautious, with risk assets under pressure and the US Dollar showing marginal strength. The pair's near-term outlook remains constructive as long as it holds above the 20-day EMA.