On Saturday, Iranian drones and missiles targeted two of the Gulf's largest aluminum producers, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Aluminium Bahrain, causing significant disruption in the global metals market [1]. The attacks resulted in 'significant' damage to EGA's Al Taweelah smelter and injured several people, according to EGA CEO Abdulnasser Bin Kalban, who emphasized that the safety and security of their employees remains a top priority [1]. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical export route, has been effectively closed since the attacks, preventing most Gulf firms from exporting aluminum globally [1].
The Gulf region accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum supply, and the recent attacks have intensified fears of a supply shortage [1]. Aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange surged 5.5% on Monday, briefly reaching $3,492 per tonne—a price not seen since April 2022—before settling 3.5% higher at $3,381 per tonne by Monday afternoon [1]. Since the conflict began on February 28, aluminum prices have risen around 10%, although there was a brief dip last week amid broader recession concerns [1]. EGA's damaged smelter produced 1.6 million tons of cast metal in 2025, highlighting the scale of potential disruption [1].
Analysts are warning of a possible supply crisis. April Kaye Soriano, an aluminum research analyst at S&P Global Energy, stated that the attacks have sent 'shockwaves' through the global aluminum market and could lead to tighter supply and higher prices if the damage proves lasting [1]. Joyce Li, commodities strategist at Macquarie Group, noted that their base case before the attacks assumed a 20% reduction in running capacity, equating to roughly 800 to 900 kilotons of production loss in 2026. Li added that this disruption could push the global market into a full-year deficit and that Macquarie is closely monitoring the 'fluid' situation for further developments [1].
The attacks have darkened the outlook for commodity firms in the region, which have already faced severe supply disruptions over the past month [1]. Aluminum is a critical material for industries including electronics, transport, construction, solar panels, and packaging, making the supply concerns particularly impactful [1].
CONCLUSION
Iranian attacks on Gulf aluminum producers have caused significant supply disruptions, leading to a sharp rise in aluminum prices and raising fears of a global shortage. Analysts warn that if the damage persists, the market could face a full-year deficit and sustained higher prices. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing monitoring by industry experts.