The EUR/USD currency pair is trading sideways between 1.1530 and 1.1550 in a holiday-thinned session, with most markets closed for Good Friday. Despite subdued trading, the Euro is on track for a 0.3% weekly appreciation, although price action remains confined within March’s trading range. Mild risk aversion, influenced by the ongoing Iran war now in its 35th day, is limiting Euro rallies as market participants shift their attention to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for release later on Friday [1].
The US economy is expected to have created 60,000 new jobs in March, which would partially offset February’s decline of 92,000 jobs. The Unemployment Rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.4% [1]. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is a key economic indicator for forex traders, as monthly changes in payrolls can trigger significant volatility in the currency markets. The market's reaction will depend not only on the headline figure but also on revisions to previous months and the unemployment rate [1].
Technical analysis indicates a neutral to bearish tone for EUR/USD in the near term. The pair was recently rejected at a previous support trendline, and the MACD line has slipped below the signal line, suggesting emerging bearish momentum. The RSI is flat around the 50 mark, indicating a lack of clear directional bias. Immediate support is seen at Thursday's low near 1.1510, with further downside targets at the March 30 low of 1.1443 and the March 13 low of 1.1422. On the upside, resistance is noted at 1.1563, with a more significant barrier between 1.1620 and 1.1645, which has capped bullish moves in late March and early April [1].
The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls release is expected to be a focal point for traders, as it is closely watched by policymakers and can influence Federal Reserve decisions. The consensus estimate is for a 60,000 job increase, and the report is scheduled for Friday, April 3, 2026, at 12:30 [1].
CONCLUSION
EUR/USD remains range-bound ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, with technical indicators pointing to a neutral-to-bearish bias. The jobs data is expected to drive volatility and could influence the pair’s direction depending on the headline figure and revisions. Traders are closely watching for any surprises in the report that could impact the US Dollar and broader forex markets.