European natural gas prices have demonstrated resilience compared to oil prices, according to ING's Warren Patterson, as the recovery in LNG supply has been modest and Middle East flows continue to face disruptions [1]. Heatwaves have further increased demand, resulting in EU gas storage levels just above 50%, which is significantly below the five-year average of 66% for this time of year [1]. ING highlights that the ramp-up of LNG plants in Qatar will take time, and QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on some supply contracts until early September, further constraining supply [1].
Due to these factors, ING notes that it will be challenging for the region to reach even the lowest EU-mandated storage target of 75% [1]. While El Niño conditions could potentially lead to a milder start to the 2026/27 heating season and offer some relief, this outcome is not guaranteed [1]. ING expects European natural gas prices to remain well-supported through the end of the 2026/27 winter [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst opinions beyond ING's outlook are mentioned in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
European natural gas prices are expected to remain firm due to tight storage, modest LNG supply recovery, and ongoing supply disruptions. ING forecasts continued price support through the 2026/27 winter, with only potential, but uncertain, relief from El Niño conditions.