Crude oil prices have surged, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $98.00 per barrel, its highest level since April 13, and Brent crude climbing above $100 per barrel, hitting $109.31 overnight after a 2.75% rise to $108.23 at the previous close [1][2]. The rally comes as peace talks between the United States and Iran have stalled, leaving the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway for 20% of global crude supply—closed for the ninth consecutive week [1][2]. According to reports, US President Donald Trump was dissatisfied with Iran's peace proposal, which did not address the nuclear program, resulting in a continued deadlock in negotiations [1]. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated that the administration is focused on securing the right trade deal with Tehran and hinted at upcoming 'historic agreements' in Europe [1].
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prompted several nations to call for its reopening, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of a potential global food emergency if the situation persists [1]. Deutsche Bank strategists note that the persistent closure has driven Brent crude to its highest level in three weeks, with gains extending along the futures curve; 6-month Brent futures rose 1.79% to $88.01 per barrel [2]. The strategists also highlight that the market is increasingly pricing in a more persistent oil-driven inflation shock, as Brent has remained above $100 per barrel for nearly a week [2].
Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish bias for WTI, with bulls testing resistance at $98.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67, just below overbought territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, suggesting continued upside momentum [1]. A break above the April 12 high of $98.15 could bring the $100 psychological level into focus, with further resistance at $106.60 [1]. On the downside, support is seen at $91.10, with further levels at $85.20 and $78.88 [1].
According to Deutsche Bank, the Axios report suggesting a new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz may have tempered the initial price surge, but with no immediate progress, oil prices continued to rise [2]. The lack of resolution has kept inflation concerns at the forefront for markets [2].
CONCLUSION
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran peace talks have driven oil prices to multi-week highs, with both WTI and Brent crude experiencing significant gains. Market participants are increasingly concerned about persistent inflationary pressures stemming from elevated oil prices, and technical indicators suggest further upside potential if resistance levels are breached.