The US Dollar (USD) rallied for the second consecutive day against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Monday, reaching levels near 0.8000 for the first time in two months [1]. This upward movement is attributed to a risk-off mood in global markets, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically reciprocal attacks between Israel and Iran, which have heightened concerns about a potential all-out war in the region [1]. These geopolitical developments have also caused oil prices to surge by nearly $5 [1].
The USD is further supported by increasing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this year. According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, there is now a nearly 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates before year-end, a significant jump from 13% one month ago [1]. This shift in expectations follows a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report and a series of robust US macroeconomic releases, underscoring the resilience of the US economy despite the energy shock stemming from Iran’s war [1].
From a technical perspective, USD/CHF has broken and confirmed above near-term trendline resistance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 65 and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line indicating solid bullish momentum [1]. The pair is targeting the psychological barrier at 0.8000, with further resistance at the year-to-date high near 0.8040 and the December 2025 high at 0.8085 [1]. On the downside, support is expected at the previous resistance area near 0.7930 and Friday's low at 0.7870 [1].
CONCLUSION
USD/CHF has surged to two-month highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions and rising expectations of Fed rate hikes, reflecting strong bullish momentum. Technical indicators suggest further upside potential, with key resistance levels in focus. The market impact is high, as risk-off sentiment and robust US economic data continue to drive demand for the US Dollar.