Oil prices surged on Thursday, with Brent crude for June delivery rising nearly 5% to close at $99.39 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude for May climbing almost 4% to settle at $94.69 per barrel, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily restricted due to ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran [2]. The US Dollar Index (DXY) also traded firmly near the 98.20 region, supported by safe-haven demand amid the complex backdrop, and was strongest against the New Zealand Dollar, gaining 0.45% [1].
The Strait of Hormuz continues to experience a 'double blockage,' with only a few oil tankers passing daily, as the US Navy maintains a blockade of Iran's coast and Tehran threatens retaliation against ships in the Persian Gulf [1][2]. Iran's proposal to impose a toll payable via its domestic banking system has added further uncertainty to global trade and energy markets [1]. Diplomatic clarity remains elusive, with President Donald Trump stating that the US and Iran will 'probably' meet over the weekend for another round of negotiations, though no official date has been set [1][2].
A tentative 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is set to begin on Thursday at 5:00 pm EST, but its credibility is in question. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that forces will remain in the South Lebanon buffer zone, while Hezbollah warned that any ongoing Israeli presence would justify their resistance, highlighting the fragility of the agreement [1]. Trump also announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the ceasefire, which had been a sticking point in previous US-Iran talks [2].
The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to expire on Tuesday, April 21, with Trump having agreed to the truce in exchange for Iran opening the strait to traffic. However, Tehran has sought to maintain control over shipping in the sea lane [2]. Several European and Gulf Arab leaders believe it could take six months to negotiate a US-Iran deal, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg [2].
EUR/USD traded softer near 1.1780, ending an eight-day streak of gains as the US Dollar drew support from safe-haven flows, with traders remaining cautious about the Eurozone’s exposure to external shocks [1].
CONCLUSION
Persistent geopolitical tensions and restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil prices close to $100 per barrel and strengthened the US Dollar. The market remains on edge as ceasefire agreements are questioned and US-Iran negotiations lack clarity. Uncertainty around energy flows and diplomatic outcomes continues to fuel volatility in both currency and commodity markets.