The Polish Zloty (PLN) weakened against the Hungarian Forint following the latest press conference by National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski, which was described by Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose as a 'net dovish surprise' compared to market expectations for a clearer signal of an upcoming rate hike [1]. During the press conference, Glapinski outlined that the NBP was prepared to act if second-round effects emerged or if November's projections indicated a strong inflationary scenario, but he did not expect these conditions to be met by November [1].
Glapinski also dropped his previous guidance from September that rates would probably remain unchanged until mid-2027, signaling a shift to a more hawkish stance. However, the crucial point was his indication that a rate hike was unlikely in the near term, specifically by November, which dampened market expectations for imminent tightening [1].
The market reaction was immediate, with the Zloty weakening against peers such as the Hungarian Forint. This was attributed to the fact that markets had increasingly priced in a November rate hike as the baseline scenario, and Glapinski's comments undermined those expectations [1].
No forward-looking analyst opinions beyond Commerzbank's assessment or additional market implications were provided in the source article.
CONCLUSION
The NBP's unexpectedly dovish signals led to a weakening of the Polish Zloty, as markets adjusted their expectations for a November rate hike. Governor Glapinski's comments suggest that rate hikes are conditional and unlikely in the immediate term, prompting a reassessment of monetary policy outlook for Poland.