According to OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong, the USD/IDR currency pair has eased from overbought territory, mirroring similar moves in other USD/Asia pairs as oil prices declined and optimism grew over a potential US–Iran deal [1]. The strategists highlight that bullish momentum remains intact on the daily chart, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing early signs of rolling over from near overbought conditions [1].
Bank Indonesia (BI) has recently implemented tighter rules on cash purchases of foreign currency, reducing the cap from USD50,000 to USD25,000 for transactions without supporting documents as of May 5. This measure is part of BI's efforts to stabilize the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) [1]. Additionally, BI Governor Perry has stated that the IDR is undervalued and should strengthen, reinforcing the central bank's commitment to currency stability [1].
From a technical perspective, support for USD/IDR is identified at 17,267 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 low to high) and 17,200 (21-day moving average), while resistance is noted near 17,440 [1]. The strategists suggest that a further pullback in USD/IDR is plausible if geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving the US and Iran, de-escalate more significantly [1].
CONCLUSION
USD/IDR has retreated from overbought levels amid improved sentiment and Bank Indonesia's recent measures to stabilize the Rupiah. Technical indicators suggest potential for further downside if geopolitical risks subside, while BI's actions and statements support a stronger IDR outlook.