Copper prices experienced a pullback, falling below $14,000 per tonne after a recent rally that saw gains of around 3% over the previous two sessions [1]. ING's Commodities Strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey attribute this decline to rising US–Iran tensions and broader macroeconomic concerns, which have weighed on demand expectations for copper [1]. The retreat also reflects profit-taking following the rally, as well as uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy on metals, including an ongoing review of refined copper imports [1].
The US has recently adjusted its metals tariff framework, maintaining elevated tariffs on certain copper products while expanding coverage to include additional semi-fabricated goods such as electrical conductors and cables [1]. Rules of origin were eased, lowering the threshold for qualifying as US-origin metal from 95% to 85%, thereby making it easier for importers to access preferential treatment [1]. Despite these changes, market attention is focused on the review of refined copper imports, as any additional duties could significantly impact US supply dynamics due to the country's reliance on imported refined metal [1].
While structural fundamentals remain broadly supportive—driven by tariff-induced trade distortions and demand linked to electrification and grid investment—the near-term price direction for copper is expected to remain volatile. Macro risks, including uncertainty in the Middle East, continue to act as a headwind for copper prices [1].
ING's strategists note that ongoing supply risks persist, but concerns over weaker global growth, higher energy costs, and inflation are currently weighing on market sentiment [1].
CONCLUSION
Copper prices have retreated from recent highs due to macroeconomic concerns and uncertainty over US tariff policy, despite supportive structural fundamentals. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical risks and potential changes in US import duties, which could materially affect supply dynamics. Near-term volatility is expected as traders monitor tariff developments and global demand signals.