Major U.S. banks are set to kick off earnings season this week, with at least seven of the largest financial institutions scheduled to report results. The S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs, and the upcoming bank earnings are anticipated to serve as a significant market catalyst, especially as the financial sector has been the third-worst performing S&P 500 sector in 2026, remaining flat year-to-date [1].
Options market data from Cboe LiveVol indicates expectations for notable stock moves following the reports. Goldman Sachs (GS) is expected to see a 2.84% move after its earnings release on Tuesday, October 13, compared to an average 2% move over the past eight quarters. Notably, GS rallied 9% after its Q2 report in July, marking its largest post-earnings move since January 2019 [1]. JPMorgan (JPM) has a similar implied move of 2.5%, in line with its historical average. JPM's last positive post-earnings reaction was a 2.5% gain in July, its first since April 2025, when it rose 4% [1].
Citigroup (C), up 11% year-to-date—the best among this week's reporting banks—has an implied move of 3%, below its 3.8% average. However, last quarter, Citigroup surprised to the downside with a 5.3% drop against a 3.5% implied move [1]. Wells Fargo (WFC), down 10% this year and having underperformed in its last three earnings reports, faces an implied 3.5% move, which is lower than its 5.6% average [1].
Bank of America (BAC) is set to report on Wednesday, October 14, with options implying a 2.9% move, higher than its 1.8% average. A positive result would mark its third consecutive post-earnings gain and could push the stock into positive territory for the year [1]. Morgan Stanley (MS), which has only seen one negative post-earnings move in its last eight quarters, has an implied 3% move this time, compared to its historical performance [1].
Overall, the options market is signaling expectations for heightened volatility in bank stocks as investors assess the impact of higher interest rates and consumer pressures. The results from these major financial institutions are poised to influence broader market sentiment and could act as a catalyst for the S&P 500 [1].
CONCLUSION
The options market is anticipating significant volatility as major U.S. banks report earnings this week, with implied moves generally above historical averages. Given the financial sector's underperformance in 2026 and the S&P 500's proximity to record highs, these earnings reports are likely to have a substantial impact on market direction.