AUD/USD Price Forecast: Remains below 0.7050, nine-day EMA as bullish bias stabilizes

Neutral (-0.2)Impact: Medium

Published on March 4, 2026 (6 hours ago) · By Vibe Trader

The AUD/USD currency pair pared its daily losses but remained in negative territory for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.7030 during early European hours on Wednesday [1]. Technical analysis indicates the pair is holding within an ascending channel pattern, which suggests a persistent bullish bias, although the near-term outlook is mildly bearish as AUD/USD stays below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and above the 50-day EMA at 0.6930, preserving the broader uptrend [1].

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to approximately 53 from previously overbought levels, signaling that upside momentum has normalized rather than reversed, with buyers still defending the short-term trend structure [1]. Immediate resistance is noted at the nine-day EMA of 0.7067, followed by the three-year high of 0.7147, reached on February 12. Further advances could see the pair test the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7260 [1]. On the downside, initial support is at the lower ascending channel boundary near 0.6950, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6929. A daily close below this medium-term average would neutralize the current bullish bias and potentially open a deeper retracement toward the “Rebound Support” area around 0.6400 [1].

The heat map of major currencies shows that the Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar today, with a percentage change of -0.47%. Against the US Dollar, the AUD declined by -0.26%, and it also posted losses versus the Euro (-0.14%), British Pound (-0.15%), Japanese Yen (-0.42%), Canadian Dollar (-0.32%), and Swiss Franc (-0.22%) [1].

No forward-looking statements or analyst opinions beyond technical chart analysis are provided in the article [1].

CONCLUSION

AUD/USD remains under mild bearish pressure in the near term, trading below key moving averages and posting losses against most major currencies. Despite the short-term weakness, the broader uptrend is intact unless the pair closes below the 50-day EMA. Market sentiment is slightly negative, but technical support and resistance levels will be key for future direction.

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