The United Kingdom is confronting significant risks to its jet fuel and diesel supply chains due to a sharp decline in domestic refining capacity, raising concerns about the country's ability to meet demand, especially during the busy summer travel season [1]. The UK, while remaining a net exporter of petrol, has become increasingly reliant on imports for diesel and kerosene (jet fuel), a vulnerability highlighted by recent geopolitical events in the Middle East [1].
Refinery output in the UK has dropped by 41% between 2000 and 2024, according to the House of Commons Library, with major oil companies BP and Shell exiting the UK refining market by 2011 [1]. The number of UK refineries has fallen from 18 in the 1970s to just four as of 2024, following the closures of the Prax Lindsey refinery in Lincolnshire and the Petroineos refinery at Grangemouth in Scotland last year [1]. The remaining refineries—Fawley (Exxon Mobil), Humber (Phillips 66), Pembroke (Valero Energy), and Stanlow (Essar)—now supply around 85% of the UK market's needs [1].
The UK's dependence on imported refined products is particularly acute for kerosene and diesel. In 2024, Britain imported 3.1 times as much kerosene as it produced and 2.5 times as much diesel, according to Fuels Industry UK [1]. This marks a significant shift from earlier decades, when over 80% of kerosene was sourced domestically at the turn of the century [1]. The shift is attributed to refinery closures, poor investment returns, lack of government support for upgrades, higher carbon and energy costs, and the push towards net-zero emissions and electric vehicles [1].
The article underscores that the UK's poor supply chain resilience could soon lead to shortages in refined oil products, particularly jet fuel and diesel, with potential consequences for British tourists and the broader economy [1].
CONCLUSION
The UK's shrinking refinery sector has left the country increasingly dependent on imports for jet fuel and diesel, exposing it to supply chain risks and potential shortages. With only four refineries remaining and import reliance at record highs, market participants should closely monitor developments, especially as the summer travel season approaches.