According to Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao and Shuang Ding, both the US and China are motivated to maintain stability in their bilateral relationship as President Trump's visit to China, scheduled for 14–15 May, approaches [1]. The economists highlight that the primary objective of the visit will likely be to uphold the tariff truce established in October of the previous year, while also seeking modest trade concessions in non-sensitive sectors and reinforcing cooperation on select geopolitical issues [1].
The report notes that recent headlines suggesting tension between the two countries are likely posturing ahead of the visit and are not expected to derail ongoing stabilization efforts [1]. Instead, the visit could help prevent renewed escalation at a time when both sides are experiencing the negative effects of higher trade barriers and supply-chain disruptions. Trade in non-sensitive sectors is identified as the most actionable area for near-term agreements [1].
Standard Chartered draws parallels to last year’s Busan truce, suggesting that both countries may prioritize measures that can be implemented through administrative actions, such as tariff relief, market access, export approvals, and targeted purchases, rather than pursuing broad, sweeping commitments [1]. Possible outcomes from the visit include tariff reductions on selected products, an extended suspension or calibrated easing of specific non-tariff restrictions by the US, and incremental Chinese purchases of certain US goods, including agriculture, energy, and aircraft, as well as continued Chinese supply of critical minerals [1].
The economists emphasize that the approach from both sides is expected to remain pragmatic and transactional, with the March preparation meeting in Paris focusing on trade issues [1].
CONCLUSION
Standard Chartered expects the upcoming US-China talks to focus on sustaining the current tariff truce and achieving limited, pragmatic trade concessions in non-sensitive sectors. This approach is seen as a means to avoid renewed escalation and mitigate the costs of ongoing trade barriers for both countries.