Industrial metals, led by copper, experienced gains as investors closely watched renewed US-Iran talks and assessed ongoing shipping risks, according to ING’s commodities team. Copper prices climbed back above $13,300 per tonne, buoyed by easing concerns over potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [1]. In contrast, aluminium prices remained under pressure, with the metal on track for its steepest monthly decline since 2008, reversing much of the earlier rally that was driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East [1].
Speculative positioning in the metals market has turned less supportive. LME aluminium speculative net longs fell for a third consecutive week to 68,814 lots as of the week ending 26 June, marking the lowest level since May 2021. This decline was attributed to a sharp rise in short positions amid diminishing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. Copper net longs also decreased for a fourth straight week to 48,735 lots, while zinc net longs dropped for a third week to 28,222 lots, the lowest since October 2025 [1].
The metals market is increasingly focused on the outlook for US monetary policy. Expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer are supporting the US dollar, which in turn is creating a headwind for commodities prices [1].
CONCLUSION
Copper prices rebounded above $13,300/t as geopolitical risks eased, while aluminium faced significant downward pressure, heading for its steepest monthly decline since 2008. Speculative positioning has turned less supportive across major industrial metals, and a stronger dollar driven by expectations of prolonged higher US rates continues to weigh on the sector.