StubHub shares rose by 3.8% on Friday, marking their third consecutive daily gain, after Citi upgraded the ticket reselling platform's stock rating from neutral to buy. The upgrade was led by analyst Jason Bazinet, who, despite trimming his price target from $9 to $7, still sees an 18% upside from Thursday's close [1]. Bazinet's optimism is based on expectations that StubHub's adjusted EBITDA will exceed analyst forecasts, with full-year earnings projected to be near the top end of the company's guidance [1].
Key data points highlighted in Citi's note include record-setting weekly app downloads during the World Cup in 2Q26, with approximately 1.2 million downloads in that quarter. The momentum has continued, with 3Q26 quarter-to-date app downloads expected to reach about 1.4 million, and 4Q26 projected at around 0.8 million [1]. Bazinet also forecasts StubHub will generate $10.9 billion in gross merchandise sales for 2026, surpassing the company's own guidance [1].
StubHub currently holds about 40% of the online ticket reselling market share, making it the most popular platform in the sector [1]. The company has benefited from a strong summer sports season and robust demand for concerts, particularly for large-scale events, even as demand for smaller venues has weakened—a trend StubHub attributes to the "K-shaped economy" in live music [1].
Despite the recent rally, StubHub's stock remains down 51% year to date [1].
CONCLUSION
StubHub's shares have experienced a notable short-term rally following Citi's upgrade and positive growth forecasts, though the stock remains significantly lower for the year. Strong app download trends and market leadership position support a more optimistic outlook, but the company still faces challenges reflected in its year-to-date performance.