Dutch manufacturing is experiencing robust expansion, with the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI reaching its highest level since 2022, according to ABN Amro's Albert Jan Swart [1]. This growth is primarily attributed to increased stockpiling by companies in response to supply chain disruptions caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to Middle East tensions [1]. Rising domestic demand, higher prices, and larger inventories are contributing to the sector's output growth, although these factors are also increasing working-capital requirements [1].
While demand for Dutch manufactured products is rising at the fastest pace in nearly two years, the increase in foreign demand remains modest, indicating that the current growth is mainly driven by domestic stockpiling rather than exports [1]. Despite the positive momentum in production and demand, business sentiment remains cautious. Expectations for production over the next twelve months have improved only slightly, as industrial business owners remain apprehensive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty related to energy supplies, especially in light of the war with Iran [1].
The report notes that Dutch manufacturing is currently outpacing German manufacturing, as reflected in the flash purchasing managers’ index for Germany from S&P Global [1]. However, the outlook for a sustained recovery into 2026 is uncertain, given the energy crisis stemming from the conflict with Iran, despite a provisional ceasefire between the United States and Iran [1].
CONCLUSION
Dutch manufacturing is showing strong growth, driven by domestic stockpiling amid ongoing supply chain disruptions and energy uncertainty. While current indicators are positive, cautious sentiment and unresolved geopolitical risks suggest that the sector's outlook remains uncertain beyond the near term.