A recent NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo Station Group poll reveals that a plurality of likely California voters support Proposition 40, a November ballot measure proposing a one-time wealth tax on the state's richest residents, though the initiative currently falls short of majority support. According to the poll, 48% of likely voters indicated they would vote 'yes' on the proposal, while 38% said 'no' and 14% remained undecided. Among Hispanic likely voters, support was slightly higher, with 50% in favor, 40% opposed, and 10% undecided. The poll, conducted from September 21-24, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points for each side's support level [1].
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the assets of Californians with net worths exceeding $1.1 billion, with 90% of the revenue earmarked for healthcare and the remaining 10% split between education and food assistance programs. Individuals with net worths between $1 billion and $1.1 billion would face a smaller tax. The taxes would apply retroactively to anyone residing in California as of January 1, 2026 [1].
The proposal has sparked division among Democratic leaders. Supporters, such as Rep. Ro Khanna and billionaire activist Tom Steyer, argue the tax would address income inequality and help offset state budget shortfalls resulting from Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump’s 'big, beautiful bill.' In contrast, opponents including Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra contend that the measure could drive wealthy investors and tech leaders out of the state. The initiative, led by the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, has also faced criticism from other unions and Democratic groups who object to the disproportionate allocation of new revenue to healthcare over other progressive priorities [1].
Some Democratic critics have joined with Republicans in warning that a wealth tax could destabilize California’s revenue streams by prompting the ultrarich to leave the state. Despite these concerns, the poll indicates that most California voters are not significantly worried about the potential exodus of wealthy residents [1].
CONCLUSION
While Proposition 40 enjoys a 10-point lead among likely voters, it has yet to secure majority support, with a significant portion of the electorate still undecided. The measure has ignited debate among political leaders and unions, reflecting broader concerns about its economic impact and allocation of funds. The outcome remains uncertain as the November ballot approaches.