The ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has precipitated a severe disruption in global oil and fertilizer supply chains, with officials and analysts warning of escalating consequences for both energy markets and food security worldwide [1][2]. The conflict has led to rising energy, shipping, and fertilizer costs, particularly due to Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route through which roughly one-third of all globally traded fertilizer and significant volumes of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are shipped [1][2]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol described the current energy crisis as the worst in history, noting that the loss of oil supply in April is expected to be twice that of March, with a total loss of 12 million barrels per day—more than the combined losses of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises [2]. Gas supplies lost due to the conflict and blockade also exceed those lost during Russia's gas disruptions in 2022 [2].
The impact is already being felt in the United States, but the most severe consequences are anticipated for poorer, import-dependent countries such as Malawi, Zambia, Brazil, South Asia, and East Africa, where even minor increases in food production and transportation costs can exacerbate hunger and strain fragile food systems [1]. Malawi, for example, receives 61.6% of its fertilizer from the Gulf, and local farmers are bracing for shortages and price surges [1]. Ebony Loloji, director of Zambia's National Union for Small Scale Farmers, warned of imminent supply chain disruptions and affordability issues for fertilizer [1]. Brazil's Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro also noted rising urea prices and potential supply disruptions [1].
The duration of the war is seen as pivotal; Máximo Torero, chief economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization, stated that a disruption lasting up to one month could be absorbed, but a three-month or longer disruption would significantly escalate risks and affect global planting decisions [1]. Birol echoed concerns about broader economic impacts, predicting that inflation will rise and economic growth will be cut in many countries, especially emerging economies, with energy rationing potentially imminent [2].
In response to the crisis, the IEA is considering another release of its strategic oil reserves, monitoring the market continuously and focusing on shortages of jet fuel and diesel, which are already affecting Asia and are expected to impact Europe soon [2]. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that American forces would leave Iran "in two or three weeks," which prompted a relief rally across financial markets [2]. However, Birol cautioned that the war, now in its fifth week, has already caused deeper disruptions than previous crises [2].
CONCLUSION
The Iran war has triggered unprecedented disruptions in oil and fertilizer supply chains, causing sharp price increases and threatening global food security, especially in vulnerable regions. While a short-term resolution may ease some pressures, prolonged conflict risks escalating hunger and economic instability worldwide. Market sentiment remains negative, with high impact expected across energy and agricultural sectors.