According to ING’s Warren Patterson, recent developments in the oil market have temporarily eased upward pressure on prices. The primary factors contributing to this relief are a significant decline in Chinese crude oil imports and robust US exports, which have helped balance the market since the onset of the war [1]. Specifically, China’s crude oil imports in May 2026 fell by 3.2 million barrels per day year-on-year, reaching 7.8 million barrels per day—the lowest level since October 2017 [1].
However, Patterson emphasizes that these market supports are not sustainable. The increase in US exports is being sourced from existing inventories rather than new supply growth, suggesting that this trend cannot continue indefinitely [1]. Additionally, releases from strategic reserves, including the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), have played a role in preventing significantly higher oil prices. These releases are scheduled to end by late July, which could accelerate the tightening of the oil market thereafter [1].
No specific market reactions or analyst price forecasts are mentioned in the article. The overall tone suggests caution, as the current factors providing relief are expected to dissipate soon, potentially leading to renewed upward pressure on oil prices [1].
CONCLUSION
Recent declines in Chinese crude imports and increased US exports have temporarily eased oil market pressures, but these supports are not expected to last. With strategic reserve releases ending by late July, the market may face renewed tightening and upward price pressure in the near future.