A recent survey conducted by The Conference Board in collaboration with The Business Council reveals a sharp decline in CEO confidence regarding the U.S. economy's trajectory. The Measure of CEO Confidence, based on responses from 141 CEOs, dropped to 47 in Q2 from 59 in Q1, indicating that negative outlooks now outnumber positive ones for the first time since the previous quarter. Only 15% of CEOs believe the economy is better than it was six months ago, a significant decrease from 39% in Q1, while 47% say it is worse, up from just 8% previously. Furthermore, 40% of respondents expect economic conditions to deteriorate further in the next six months, compared to 13% last quarter [1].
Conference Board Chief Economist Dana M Peterson stated, "CEO confidence fell back into negative territory in Q2 2026, reversing the surge in optimism in the first quarter." She added that CEOs reported the economy is materially worse now than six months ago and expect further weakening in the coming half-year. CEO assessments of their own industries' current conditions and six-month outlooks also worsened compared to the previous quarter [1].
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter, which was below the 0.7% growth expected by economists polled by LSEG. For the full year, the economy expanded by 2.1%. However, EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco commented that 2025 "will likely be remembered as the year that ‘could have been,’" and warned that the outlook for 2026 appears even less favorable due to factors such as the Middle East conflict, higher inflation, weaker real disposable income growth, and tighter financial conditions [1].
The survey also indicates that corporations are preparing for a business slowdown by tightening budgets, reducing hiring plans, and considering potential layoffs. Thirty-one percent of CEOs expect to reduce their workforce in the next six months, surpassing the 28% who plan to expand hiring. Planned wage increases are slowing, mostly in the 3% to 4% range, and 53% of CEOs reported experiencing "some problems in some areas" when hiring. Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., Vice Chairman of The Business Council, noted that the "low-hire, low-fire" economy persists, with a slight decrease in the share of CEOs planning to increase their workforce and a slight rise in those expecting job cuts [1].
CONCLUSION
CEO confidence in the U.S. economy has sharply declined, with most expecting conditions to worsen in the next six months. Companies are signaling reduced hiring, potential layoffs, and slower wage growth, reflecting a cautious outlook. The market takeaway is a clear shift toward pessimism among top corporate leaders, suggesting increased economic headwinds ahead.