Taiwan's April trade data revealed a slowdown in both export and import growth compared to market expectations, with the trade surplus narrowing to USD14.35 billion [1]. Export growth decelerated to 39.0% year-on-year in April, a significant drop from 61.8% year-on-year in March, and fell short of forecasts for the month [1]. Despite this, semiconductor and machinery exports continued to perform strongly, and the export price index accelerated for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 18.0% year-on-year—a multi-year high [1].
Higher oil prices have begun to push up the value of imports, contributing to the easing of the trade surplus [1]. ING notes that, although April's data marked the first miss in Taiwan's trade figures for some time, both exports and imports are still experiencing robust growth. Export orders data indicates that this momentum is likely to persist in the near term, although export growth may moderate later in the year due to challenging base effects, particularly in the fourth quarter [1].
Looking ahead, ING maintains a positive outlook for Taiwan's trade prospects, especially as demand for advanced AI chips remains strong. The firm expects another year of solid economic growth for Taiwan and sees upside risks to its 2026 GDP growth forecast of 8.2% year-on-year, following a strong start to the year [1].
CONCLUSION
Taiwan's April trade data showed a slowdown in export growth and a narrowing trade surplus, but underlying momentum remains strong, particularly in semiconductors and machinery. ING maintains an optimistic outlook for Taiwan's economy, citing robust export orders and upside risks to its 2026 GDP growth forecast.