US Dollar Weakens as Trump Signals Iran Withdrawal; Geopolitical Risks and Fed Bets Shape FX Markets

Neutral (0.1)Impact: Medium

Published on April 1, 2026 (3 hours ago) · By Vibe Trader

The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its losses for a second consecutive day, trading around 99.80 during Asian hours on Wednesday, as risk appetite improved following US President Donald Trump's statement that the United States would be 'leaving very soon' from the Iran war, with a withdrawal potentially occurring within two to three weeks [3]. This dovish geopolitical development was partially offset by reports that the UAE is advocating for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining inflationary concerns and supporting hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations [1][4].

The EUR/USD pair touched a one-week high but remained below the 1.1600 mark, with technical indicators showing fading but still positive momentum. The pair's upside was capped by persistent geopolitical risks and expectations of further Fed tightening, which supported the US Dollar and limited Euro gains. Key technical levels for EUR/USD include resistance at 1.1599 and support at 1.1520 and 1.1492 [1].

In cross-currency action, EUR/JPY extended gains for a second day, trading around 183.60 and testing the nine-day EMA barrier at 183.70. The pair maintained a mildly bullish bias, with the potential to target the all-time high of 186.88 if it breaks above the ascending triangle pattern. Support levels are noted at 183.36 and 182.70 [2]. The Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar in percentage terms among major currencies, with EUR/NZD up 0.28% on the day [2].

The NZD/USD pair retreated from its weekly top near 0.5760 to 0.5730, pressured by Fed rate hike bets and concerns over Middle East tensions. Additional headwinds for the Kiwi included expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may delay rate hikes until Q4 and weaker-than-expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data, which fell to 50.8 in March from 52.1, signaling a fragile recovery in China and weighing on antipodean currencies [4].

Market participants are awaiting further US economic data, including the ADP private-sector employment report, monthly Retail Sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, for additional direction [4].

CONCLUSION

The US Dollar's recent weakness is driven by improved risk sentiment following President Trump's Iran withdrawal remarks, though ongoing geopolitical risks and Fed rate hike expectations continue to influence FX markets. The Euro is showing resilience, particularly against the New Zealand Dollar, while the NZD remains under pressure from both domestic and external factors. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data and geopolitical developments for further market cues.

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