Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly preparing to enter the U.S. perpetual futures market, a sector that has experienced significant growth since President Trump returned to office [1]. Perpetual futures, or 'perps,' are futures contracts without expiration dates and can offer up to 100x leverage. These products were largely unavailable in the U.S. until recently, which contributed to the dominance of offshore exchanges like Binance and the now-defunct FTX [1].
According to CoinGecko, perps now account for more than 70% of all volume on centralized crypto exchanges [1]. In 2025, the trading volume for perps reached a nominal $61.7 trillion, marking a 29% increase from 2024, while spot crypto trading volume was $18.6 trillion, up 9% year-over-year, based on CryptoQuant data [1]. The entry of prediction markets into leveraged trading could reshape how Americans trade on real-world events and bring these platforms into direct competition with established players such as Robinhood and Coinbase [1].
Despite the potential for increased volatility and closer ties between crypto and mainstream finance, analysts have largely downplayed the immediate risks to incumbent platforms. Owen Lau, an analyst at Clear Street, described the move as a 'natural product extension' for Kalshi and Polymarket, suggesting it would be difficult to lure users away from established platforms like Coinbase, Binance, or Robinhood [1]. Dan Dolev of Mizuho characterized the move as defensive, noting that Robinhood is likely to develop its own offerings in this space [1].
Robinhood launched its Prediction Markets hub in partnership with Kalshi last year, which became its fastest-growing product line by revenue, with 11 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in 2025 [1]. Coinbase also partnered with Kalshi in January. Both companies, along with Crypto.com, are members of the newly formed Coalition for Prediction Markets lobby group [1]. Dolev emphasized the significant overlap between prediction and crypto market user bases, calling Robinhood's entry a 'home run idea' [1].
Looking ahead, Lau noted that if perps trading gains popularity in the U.S., it could lead to increased volatility in certain assets [1]. Dolev added that prediction market providers may eventually face the risk of disruption as the market evolves [1].
CONCLUSION
The push by prediction markets to enter the U.S. perpetual futures space highlights the sector's rapid growth and the potential for increased competition among trading platforms. While analysts see the move as a logical extension rather than an immediate threat, the convergence of prediction and leveraged trading could reshape market dynamics and increase volatility if adoption accelerates.