Silver (XAG/USD) pulled back from intraday highs on Tuesday, trading around $75 after reaching a session peak near $77, as the US Dollar rebounded due to ongoing uncertainty regarding a potential deal between the United States and Iran to end the three-month-old war [1]. The price action in silver remains heavily influenced by geopolitical developments and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Reports from Iran’s Fars News Agency indicated that negotiations between Tehran and Washington have been paused for several days over the proposed memorandum of understanding, contributing to market caution [1].
Rising oil-driven inflation concerns are supporting expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve, which in turn limits the upside for silver, as higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [1]. Despite the announcement of a fragile ceasefire earlier in April, slow progress toward a peace deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz is keeping markets cautious and has left silver trading within a two-week range [1].
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias, remaining below both the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46, indicating neutral momentum, while the MACD indicator remains negative, suggesting subdued upside potential and the likelihood that rallies will encounter resistance near the moving averages [1]. Immediate resistance is identified at the 50-day SMA around $76.10, with the next hurdle at the 100-day SMA near $81.17. On the downside, significant support is not seen until the 200-day SMA at $67.30, where longer-term buyers may step in if the pullback continues [1].
The US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen among major currencies, reflecting a generally firm tone for the greenback on the day [1].
CONCLUSION
Silver remains under pressure, trading below key technical levels as geopolitical uncertainty and a stronger US Dollar weigh on sentiment. The market is likely to remain cautious until there is clearer progress on US-Iran negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Upside in silver appears limited in the near term, with technical resistance and macro headwinds in play.