Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose anticipates that Poland’s National Bank (NBP) will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut today, citing slower-than-anticipated inflation as justification for easing monetary policy [1]. The analyst consensus is unanimous in expecting this 25bps cut, marking the March decision as the starting point for a dovish trajectory [1]. While NBP Governor Glapinski previously hinted at a terminal rate of 3.50%, some Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members have cited 3.25% as a possible endpoint, and others believe only one further 25bps cut is justified [1]. This divergence in views introduces uncertainty regarding the pace and extent of future easing [1].
Commerzbank maintains its view that the committee leans dovish and is likely to eventually vote in favor of a 3.25% terminal rate, which is expected to keep the Polish zloty underperforming its regional peers until after the next general election, possibly scheduled for November 2027 [1]. The press conference scheduled for tomorrow afternoon is anticipated to provide greater insight into future rate prospects than today’s announcement, assuming there are no surprises in the rate decision [1].
The dovish outlook and expected rate cuts are seen as weighing on the zloty, with market participants likely to monitor the NBP’s forward guidance closely for signals on the trajectory of monetary policy and its impact on currency performance [1].
CONCLUSION
Poland’s NBP is expected to cut rates by 25bps, with slower inflation supporting a dovish policy path. The zloty is likely to underperform peers amid uncertainty about the terminal rate, with the market awaiting further guidance from the upcoming press conference. Overall, the sentiment is negative for the zloty, and the market impact is medium as investors assess future monetary policy direction.