The U.S. agricultural sector is facing mounting pressure as farmers brace for a potential crisis driven by surging input costs and geopolitical turmoil. Mark Mueller, a fourth-generation Iowa farmer and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, expressed unprecedented concern, stating, 'I am more concerned now than I have been in my 30 years of farming' [1]. Even before the Iran war, farmers were struggling with rising fertilizer and feed prices due to industry consolidation and increased international competition, resulting in smaller returns on crops like corn and soybeans [1].
In 2025, Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies reached 315, marking a 46% increase from the previous year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation [1]. The situation has worsened since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, 2026, leading to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran. This strait previously facilitated the daily passage of about a third of the world's fertilizer ingredients and a fifth of its oil supplies, but its closure has stranded tankers and driven up global prices for fertilizer and diesel fuel [1].
Mueller reported that the price of nitrogen fertilizer from his supplier jumped from $795 per ton on February 22 to $990 at the end of March, a nearly $200 increase in just a few weeks [1]. Diesel prices have also soared, averaging $5.51 nationwide, up from $3.76 before the war, according to AAA [1]. These cost increases are hitting farmers as they enter the spring planting season, with some, like Lance Lillibridge, planning to use less fertilizer and anticipating reduced yields as a result [1].
Additionally, President Donald Trump's tariffs have further raised the cost of imported goods and strained relationships with foreign buyers of U.S. agricultural products. Mueller criticized government policies, saying, 'Our government made our life more difficult by walking away from trade deals or instituting tariffs or just basically making our customers angry — our customers being other nations and companies in other nations' [1].
CONCLUSION
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing Iran war have sharply increased fertilizer and diesel costs, compounding existing challenges for U.S. farmers. With bankruptcy rates rising and farmers expecting lower yields, the agricultural sector faces significant financial strain and uncertainty. Policy decisions and global events are intensifying market risks, raising concerns about a looming farm crisis.