Iran-backed Houthi forces have escalated threats to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping corridor linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, amid intensifying conflict involving Iran, the U.S., and Israel [1]. The Houthis, who entered the conflict in early April with missile and drone strikes on Israel, have warned they may target shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb if Gulf nations join the U.S.–Israel war on Iran [1]. This raises the prospect of a second global shipping choke point, potentially deepening pressure on energy markets and global trade [1].
The Bab al-Mandeb handles roughly 12% of global seaborne oil trade and serves as a key gateway for cargo between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal [1]. The Red Sea's importance has grown as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed more cargo and energy flows toward alternative routes, increasing reliance on Bab al-Mandeb, which manages approximately $1 trillion in goods annually [1]. Ship-tracking data indicates daily transits through Bab al-Mandeb have already fallen to about half of typical levels due to earlier Houthi attacks, with major shipping lines rerouting vessels around Africa [1].
Houthi leaders, in coordination with Iran, have framed the potential escalation as a response to U.S. and Israeli military operations, warning they could restrict access to the Red Sea if the conflict intensifies [1]. Iranian official Aliakbar Velayati stated on X: "Today, the unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz. If the White House dares to repeat its foolish mistakes, it will soon realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move" [1].
Analysts caution that renewed Houthi attacks could open a second maritime front, further choking off traffic and adding pressure to global energy markets and supply chains [1]. Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, former Fifth Fleet commander, noted, "It’s less about what they can actually do and more about the threat. Once that risk is there, shipping companies decide not to take it" [1].
CONCLUSION
The Houthis' threats to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have already reduced shipping traffic and heightened concerns about global energy and trade disruptions. Analysts warn that even the threat of attacks can prompt shipping companies to reroute, amplifying market risks. The situation remains fluid, with significant implications for global supply chains and energy markets if the conflict escalates.