National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, a top Trump economic advisor, has projected that U.S. GDP growth could exceed 6% due to a significant boom in capital spending, especially if the conflict in Iran concludes soon [1]. Hassett stated, "I think we really could be looking at numbers north of four, north of five, north of even six [percent], because there’s so much capital stock growth right now" [1]. He highlighted that investment rose by 3.3% in March alone, not annualized, suggesting that multiplying this figure by 12 would result in historic capital spending numbers [1].
Hassett attributed this surge in investment to the Trump administration’s tax policies and efforts to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. (onshoring) [1]. He explained that the current wave of capital spending is laying the groundwork for a sustained period of stronger economic growth, which will materialize as new factories and infrastructure become operational [1]. Hassett noted that the recent 2% GDP growth rate was held back by record imports of capital goods needed for building factories, but anticipated that once these factories are operational, the U.S. could experience unprecedented growth [1].
He further predicted that energy costs, particularly gas prices, will fall relatively quickly once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and oil shipments resume, which could take a month or two due to shipping times [1]. Hassett expects that increased oil supply will help lower prices, especially in Asia where jet fuel prices are currently high, and that oil prices could drop ahead of the upcoming election [1].
Hassett also explained that capital stock growth is currently between 5% and 8%, and that dividing this figure by three gives an estimate of the GDP growth attributable to capital spending alone [1].
CONCLUSION
The White House projects that the U.S. economy could see GDP growth exceeding 6%, driven by a surge in capital spending and potential declines in energy costs if geopolitical tensions ease. These projections suggest a highly positive outlook for U.S. economic growth in the near term, contingent on the resolution of current global conflicts and continued investment momentum.