The ongoing war in Iran and the broader Middle East has triggered significant disruptions across global commodity markets, with far-reaching effects on energy, industrial materials, and food supply chains. In Japan, prices for two-thirds of key industrial materials—including chemicals, aluminum alloys, and paper—are set to rise as supply chains are disrupted and petroleum prices surge, directly impacting sectors such as manufacturing, automotive, and electronics [1]. Technical analysis indicates that price levels for these materials are breaking upward resistance, with forecasts pointing to continued volatility and upward pressure as long as the conflict persists [1].
The energy sector is experiencing acute price shocks. Saudi Aramco has raised its premium on crude oil shipments to Asia nearly eightfold for May, setting a record $19.50 per barrel premium—the highest since at least February 2010. This has resulted in Japanese import prices for Saudi crude jumping 80% in a month, with limited alternatives for buyers and expectations that elevated prices will persist even if supply constraints ease [3]. Meanwhile, the spot price for Brent crude oil remains above $120 per barrel, despite a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, reflecting ongoing supply tightness. The spot price is nearly $30 above the June futures contract, and experts estimate that it could take up to five months to restore full production and normalize tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz [7].
The fertilizer market has also been severely impacted, with global benchmark prices for natural-gas derived urea soaring by as much as 50% since the start of the conflict. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stalled shipments, threatening food security, particularly in developing countries where fertilizer costs are a major component of agricultural expenses [4]. Analysts warn of further upward pressure on fertilizer and food prices if the situation does not stabilize, with technical analysis suggesting strong support for current elevated price levels [4].
In response to these disruptions, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has reassured the public that the country has sufficient oil reserves to last beyond this year and is actively securing alternative supply routes, with strategic petroleum reserves above the 200-day consumption level [5]. However, no specific volume or financial figures were disclosed [5]. In China, the government has raised gasoline prices for the sixth time this year but is limiting the rate of increase to maintain domestic stability. State-owned oil companies are absorbing some of the cost increases, which may impact their financial performance if sustained [6]. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the resilience of China's energy system amid these global pressures [6].
The ripple effects extend to renewable energy, as major Chinese solar panel manufacturers, including Jinko Solar, have raised prices in Japan due to higher materials costs and cuts to government rebates. This is expected to slow Japan's renewable energy expansion, with both residential and commercial projects affected. Market analysts note that further increases could reduce demand or shift sourcing strategies, and the sustainability of the sector now hinges on the interplay between material costs, government support, and demand elasticity [2].
CONCLUSION
The Iran war has caused a cascade of price increases and supply disruptions across global commodities, with particularly acute impacts on energy, industrial materials, and food-related sectors. Despite government efforts to secure supplies and stabilize markets, analysts and market participants expect continued volatility and elevated prices until geopolitical tensions ease and supply chains normalize. The situation remains fluid, with significant risks for both developed and developing economies.