Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister anticipates a short-term rise in EUR/CHF, driven by a recovering Euro and delayed Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hikes, as the SNB employs verbal interventions and maintains steady rates to curb Swiss franc appreciation. Pfister notes that market expectations currently price in roughly one SNB rate hike by the end of the year, but he considers a hike this year highly unlikely. He expects the SNB’s strategy to push EUR/CHF up by a further two centimes in the coming months, especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hike rates in June, widening the interest rate differential and making the franc less attractive. However, Pfister projects that in the longer term, lower Swiss inflation and stronger public finances will support franc strength, causing EUR/CHF to trend lower again into 2027 [1].
Meanwhile, BNP Paribas economists forecast a gradual depreciation of the US Dollar against the Euro, with EUR/USD expected to reach 1.21 by Q4 2026 and 1.25 by Q4 2027. They project the US economy to grow above potential in 2026, with GDP at 2.4% and inflation at 3.3%. The Fed Funds target range is anticipated to remain steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaling a balanced outlook for future rate moves. BNP Paribas attributes the expected USD depreciation to persistent price tensions, gradual normalization in the Middle East, and broader diversification away from the dollar [2].
Both reports suggest near-term Euro strength: Commerzbank expects EUR/CHF to rise in the coming months, while BNP Paribas forecasts a gradual appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar over the next several years. However, Commerzbank foresees a reversal for EUR/CHF in the longer term, with the Swiss franc regaining strength due to favorable domestic fundamentals [1], whereas BNP Paribas maintains a positive outlook for the Euro against the Dollar through 2027 [2].
No immediate market reactions are discussed in either article. Both sources provide forward-looking projections, with Commerzbank highlighting the potential for a short-term EUR/CHF bounce followed by a longer-term decline, and BNP Paribas outlining a steady path of USD depreciation against the Euro.
CONCLUSION
Analysts from Commerzbank and BNP Paribas both anticipate near-term Euro strength against the Swiss franc and US dollar, respectively. However, Commerzbank expects the Swiss franc to regain strength against the Euro in the longer term, while BNP Paribas projects continued Euro appreciation versus the Dollar through 2027. Market participants should monitor central bank actions and economic fundamentals for further direction.