The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, buoyed by a modest recovery in risk appetite during the Asian session. This improvement followed solid demand at a US 30-year bond auction on Thursday, which led to a decline in long-term Treasury yields from multi-decade highs and contributed to a pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from its 18-month lows. As a result, risk-sensitive currencies like the Kiwi attracted buyers, with NZD/USD returning above the 0.5600 level. However, the pair remains capped by resistance in the 0.5630-0.5640 area, keeping price action close to the 18-month lows at 0.5580 [1].
Despite the short-term uptick, the broader trend for NZD/USD remains bearish. The Kiwi is noted as one of the weakest major currencies in September, primarily due to the growing monetary policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The RBNZ's Official Cash Rate (OCR) stands at 2.75%, one of the lowest among major central banks, while the Fed has raised its fed funds rate to the 3.75%-4% range and is expected to hike by at least another 50 basis points over the next two quarters [1].
Technical analysis indicates a potential double bottom at the 0.5580 area, with improving momentum on intraday charts offering some hope for a deeper bullish correction. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is near a neutral 54, and the MACD is slightly positive, suggesting stabilizing conditions rather than a clear bullish reversal. Bulls need to break above the 0.5630-0.5640 consolidation range to confirm the double bottom and target the September 24 and 28 highs at 0.5687, and the September 22 high at 0.5740. Conversely, a drop below 0.5580 would increase pressure toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-August rally at 0.5530, with the 2025 low at 0.5485 as a further target [1].
On the day, the New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen, while its performance against other major currencies was mixed. The USD was down 0.12% against the NZD, and the NZD was up 0.30% against the JPY [1].
CONCLUSION
NZD/USD has shown modest recovery due to improved risk sentiment and easing US Treasury yields, but remains constrained by key resistance levels and a broader bearish trend. The ongoing monetary policy divergence between the RBNZ and the Fed continues to weigh on the Kiwi, with technical indicators suggesting stabilization but not a confirmed reversal. Market participants are watching for a break above 0.5630-0.5640 for further bullish momentum, or a drop below 0.5580 for renewed downside pressure.