ING economists Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak anticipate that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will maintain its policy rate at 3.75% during the upcoming Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting on 7 October. They suggest that the earliest possible change in policy could occur in November, when new macroeconomic projections become available [1].
The economists highlight that inflation in Poland rose to 4.0% year-on-year in September. Government intervention in the fuel market, specifically the third intervention involving lowered excise duty and VAT until the end of 2026, is expected to subtract 0.7 percentage points from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Despite this, inflation is projected to remain near the upper end of the central bank's tolerance band in the coming months, keeping the real interest rate close to zero in the short term [1].
Looking ahead, ING forecasts two 25 basis point rate hikes in the first quarter of 2027, citing persistent inflation risks. The economists argue that the ongoing government measures are prolonging the period of elevated commodity prices and inflation, which may necessitate a pre-emptive rate hike by the MPC in early 2027 to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched at a high level [1].
No immediate market reaction or analyst opinions on the zloty's performance are discussed in the article [1].
CONCLUSION
The National Bank of Poland is expected to keep rates unchanged at its October meeting, with potential policy adjustments deferred until November or later. Persistent inflation near the upper tolerance band and ongoing government interventions suggest that rate hikes may be necessary in early 2027 to address inflation risks.