Gold (XAU/USD) traded with a negative bias below the $4,700 mark for the second consecutive day, moving closer to last week's swing low during the Asian session on Tuesday. This decline was attributed to uncertainty over the second round of US-Iran peace talks, which supported the US Dollar (USD) and weighed on gold prices. The situation was exacerbated after US President Donald Trump canceled the planned visit of his special envoy and Jared Kushner to Pakistan, signaling receding hopes for diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war. Iran presented a new proposal to the US, setting aside nuclear program discussions until the war ends and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved, but Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the proposal, particularly its lack of nuclear issue resolution. The ongoing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz continues to elevate geopolitical risks, supporting the USD's reserve currency status and further pressuring gold prices [1].
Silver (XAG/USD) also experienced a decline, falling around 1.5% to trade near $74.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The drop in silver prices was linked to the US–Iran conflict, which has triggered an energy-driven inflation shock and raised expectations of prolonged or tighter central bank policies. Tehran reportedly signaled through Pakistan that hostilities could end if the US lifts its naval blockade, revises transit rules through Hormuz, and guarantees against future military action. However, a US official confirmed President Trump's dissatisfaction with Iran's proposal, and Iranian sources noted that Tehran avoided addressing its nuclear program until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved [2].
Market participants are closely watching upcoming policy decisions from major central banks. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its April policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive hold. The Bank of Japan is also expected to hold rates at 0.75%, and the European Central Bank is likely to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% on Thursday. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders see a roughly 35% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by the end of this year, which could limit further upside for the USD and cap the downside for gold [1][2].
Technical analysis for gold indicates that a convincing break below the trading range support near $4,655 would reaffirm the negative outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) just below the midline near 41 and the MACD histogram negative, suggesting ongoing downside momentum. Initial resistance for gold is defined by the 200-period Simple Moving Average at $4,723.13 [1].
CONCLUSION
Both gold and silver prices are under pressure due to persistent US-Iran tensions and the resulting support for the US Dollar, as well as uncertainty ahead of key central bank meetings. While geopolitical risks and inflation concerns are weighing on precious metals, expectations for unchanged interest rates from major central banks may limit further downside. Market participants remain focused on diplomatic developments and central bank guidance for future direction.