The British Pound (GBP) has experienced mixed performance amid recent market developments. According to United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists, GBP/USD dropped sharply to 1.3448 before recovering to close at 1.3467, with momentum indicators remaining mostly flat. While there is scope for a dip toward 1.3440, a move to 1.3400 is considered unlikely in the short term based on current intraday momentum. However, over the coming weeks, the probability of a test of 1.3400 is seen as increasing, provided resistance at 1.3530 is not breached [1].
In the EUR/GBP pair, the Euro remains flat against the Pound, trading at 0.8675, with resistance at 0.8680 capping Thursday’s rebound from 0.8654 lows. Notably, strong UK Retail Sales data released by the Office for National Statistics showed a 0.7% month-on-month increase in March, following a 0.6% contraction in February and beating expectations of a 0.2% gain. Core Retail Sales, excluding fuel and automobile sales, rose by 0.2%, matching market expectations after a 0.6% decline in the previous month [2]. Despite this positive data, the impact on the EUR/GBP pair has been limited [2].
Market sentiment remains cautious due to several headwinds. Preliminary UK business activity data indicated continued expansion in both manufacturing and services sectors, but costs have reached their highest levels since records began, raising concerns about future economic activity. Additionally, the GfK Consumer Confidence index fell to its lowest level in three years, reflecting growing pessimism among UK consumers amid rising energy prices and expectations of higher mortgage costs, should the Bank of England raise interest rates. These factors have weighed on the Pound and provided some support to the Euro [2].
Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and the US, have further contributed to market uncertainty. The ongoing energy shock and lack of progress in peace talks have pressured both the Pound and the Euro against the US Dollar [2].
CONCLUSION
Despite stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales, the British Pound remains under pressure due to rising costs, weak consumer confidence, and geopolitical tensions. Market participants are cautious, with downside risks for GBP/USD and limited positive impact from recent economic data.