Bitcoin futures dropped sharply on Thursday, reaching a low of $58,995, which marks the lowest price since October 2024 and represents a drawdown of approximately 52 percent from last year's high [1]. Throughout 2026, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain the $60,000 level, initially finding support in February and again in early June before briefly rallying above $67,000 [1].
Options market activity surged, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) trading nearly 1.1 million options contracts on Thursday—almost double its 30-day average, according to Cboe LiveVol data [1]. Put volume significantly outpaced calls, with traders buying 275,000 puts compared to just under 129,000 calls, as per ThinkOrSwim data [1]. Of the $187 million in premium traded on IBIT, $144 million was in puts, and 19 of the top 20 most-traded contracts by volume were puts [1]. The most popular contract was the 32.5 strike put expiring Friday, which would require another 4.5% decline in Bitcoin to become profitable [1].
Implied volatility in IBIT stood at 53, indicating that options market-makers expect a daily move of just over 3% [1]. According to options prices for the July 31 expiry, there is about a 48% chance that IBIT will fall below $30.5—a further 10% drop—by the end of next month, while the probability of a 10% rally is slightly higher at around 55% [1].
Similar bearish sentiment was observed in Michael Saylor's Strategy, where 505,000 puts and 403,000 calls traded. Traders bought 83,000 puts and sold 72,000 calls, while buying just under 58,000 calls [1].
CONCLUSION
Bitcoin is experiencing significant downward pressure, with futures hitting multi-month lows and options traders positioning for further declines. The surge in put activity and elevated implied volatility suggest that market participants are bracing for continued volatility and potential downside in the near term.