Societe Generale analysts report that Brent crude oil recently broke out of a large base formation and accelerated higher towards $120, before experiencing a steep pullback. Despite this correction, Brent has maintained levels above the upper end of its prior consolidation zone near $81, indicating resilience in the market [1]. The contract currently holds above $81, with an upside gap near $93.80 and the $120 pivot high identified as a key technical hurdle for further price extension [1].
Recent developments in the Gulf have compromised exports from Oman and affected tanker movements in Iraqi waters, leading to renewed upward momentum in both crude and natural gas prices [1]. These ongoing Gulf supply risks are keeping market participants focused on the aforementioned technical levels, particularly the $120 pivot high and the support bands at $81 and $93.80 [1].
Societe Generale notes that an upside gap has formed on the daily chart, suggesting that in the short term, Brent price action may remain within a broad range. The analysts highlight that a break above the $120 pivot high could result in further extension of the uptrend, while the up-gap near $93.80 and $81 are likely to act as near-term supports [1].
CONCLUSION
Brent crude oil has shown significant volatility, breaking out towards $120 before pulling back but holding above key support levels. Ongoing Gulf supply risks are keeping the market focused on technical hurdles, with potential for further upside if Brent breaks above $120. In the short term, price action is expected to remain range-bound, supported by recent developments and technical factors.