SpaceX has debuted as the fifth-largest publicly traded company with a valuation of $2.6 trillion, placing it in close competition with Amazon for the fifth spot and more than $1 trillion ahead of Tesla, another company led by Elon Musk [1]. To surpass Apple and Alphabet, which each have market capitalizations exceeding $4.4 trillion, SpaceX would need to increase its valuation by approximately 70% to reach $3.4 trillion, assuming Apple and Alphabet's valuations remain unchanged [1].
According to options market data from ThinkOrSwim, there is a 50% probability that SpaceX could achieve this milestone by July 2028, as inferred from the options chain and the likelihood of the stock reaching the $340 strike price [1]. For a more precise estimate, June 2028 call options assign a roughly 46% chance of SpaceX reaching this valuation [1].
If SpaceX aims to become the world's most valuable company by overtaking Nvidia, which currently holds the top spot with a $5 trillion market cap, the odds are lower. The options market assigns about a 38% chance of SpaceX surpassing Nvidia by June 2028, and a 41% chance by December 2028 [1]. These probabilities are derived from option prices, which reflect market participants' expectations for the stock's future movement [1].
The debut of SpaceX with a multitrillion-dollar valuation has brought significant attention, immediate derivatives trading, and the potential for rapid inclusion in major equity indexes. However, the path to the top of the market-cap rankings is expected to be gradual, with options data suggesting that significant upward movement will require time [1].
CONCLUSION
SpaceX's $2.6 trillion valuation has positioned it as a major player in the public markets, with options data indicating a 50/50 chance of surpassing Apple and Alphabet by 2028. While the odds of overtaking Nvidia are lower, the company's rapid ascent has already had a significant market impact. Investors and analysts will be closely watching SpaceX's performance and market movements in the coming years.