Prediction markets are already heavily engaged in the 2028 U.S. presidential race, with Kalshi's 2028 markets drawing nearly half a billion dollars in trading despite the election being two years away [1]. On the Democratic side, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff has emerged as the front-runner with a 26% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, despite a Reuters/Ipsos poll finding that a third of Democrats have never heard of him [1]. Ossoff's strong performance comes after winning Georgia by 18 points in a state President Trump carried in 2024 [1].
On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance leads the field with a 33% chance of winning the Republican nomination, though his probability of winning the presidency stands at only 12% [1]. According to election analyst Nate Silver, this gap reflects what is called the "VP curse," where vice presidents whose bosses are underwater in the polls tend to win their party's nomination but then lose in November [1]. Both Ossoff and Vance have hinted they might not run at all [1].
Other notable candidates show varying levels of market support. California Gov. Gavin Newsom's Democratic nomination chances have significantly declined from 37% to about 12%, despite leaving office in January which would free him for a full-time campaign [1]. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits around 13% to win the Democratic nomination, though traders believe she is more likely to run for Senate than for president [1]. On the Republican side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stands at 18% to win the nomination, with the market viewing him as equally likely to be a running mate as the nominee [1]. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who ran in 2024 and also leaves office in January, has been noted as the biggest riser in the Republican market since the midterms [1].
While prediction markets have an excellent long-term record of accuracy, the article notes that this far from an election, surgical precision cannot be expected [1]. The markets primarily serve to show who is trading like a blue chip, who is stuck in the middle, and whose campaign feels like a penny stock needing a miracle rally to be competitive [1].
CONCLUSION
Prediction markets are already heavily engaged in the 2028 presidential race with nearly half a billion dollars in trading, showing Jon Ossoff as the Democratic front-runner at 26% nomination odds and J.D. Vance leading Republicans at 33% nomination odds despite only 12% general election odds [1]. While these early markets provide directional insight into candidate viability, the article cautions that precision this far from an election remains limited [1].