The AUD/JPY currency pair traded in positive territory around 114.35 during the early European session on Tuesday, maintaining a bullish bias above key technical support levels [1]. Traders are closely monitoring developments related to the Middle East ceasefire, with mixed signals from US President Donald Trump. Trump stated early Tuesday that he believes an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire with Iran is reachable 'over the next week.' However, on Monday, he dismissed concerns about the possible collapse of peace negotiations, saying, 'I don’t care if they’re over, honestly' [1].
Japanese authorities may intervene verbally to limit losses in the Japanese Yen, as indicated by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who said officials are ready to respond in the currency market as needed but refrained from commenting on recent exchange-rate moves [1]. The upcoming speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday is expected to be a highlight, potentially offering hints about whether the central bank will proceed with a rate increase the following week [1].
From a technical perspective, AUD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias, remaining well above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. The price is pressing the upper side of recent consolidation, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.46 in positive territory, suggesting buyers retain control but with reduced momentum compared to the prior peak [1]. Immediate resistance is at the Bollinger upper band at 114.75, and a daily close above this level could signal a continuation of the broader uptrend. Initial support is at the Bollinger middle band around 113.85, with deeper structural support at the 100-day SMA at 111.30 [1].
CONCLUSION
AUD/JPY is exhibiting bullish momentum above 114.00, supported by technical factors and geopolitical developments. Market participants are awaiting further signals from Japanese authorities and the Bank of Japan, as well as updates on the Middle East ceasefire. The pair remains well-supported, with potential for further gains if resistance levels are breached.