Investment firm Bernstein projects that global prediction market volumes will surge to approximately $1 trillion by 2030, driven by rapid growth in trading activity and expanding contract types [1]. In 2026, prediction market volumes are on track to more than quadruple, with Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani estimating total market volumes will reach $240 billion this year, representing a 370% increase compared to 2025 [1]. The compound annual growth rate is expected to be around 80% between 2025 and 2030 [1].
The surge in prediction market activity began in 2024, spurred by the U.S. presidential election, and continued into 2025 with increased interest in sports, cryptocurrency, and macro/political contracts [1]. In the first few months of 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, have already seen about $60 billion in market volume year-to-date, surpassing the $51 billion total for all of 2025 [1]. Kalshi, which controls over 90% of the U.S. prediction market, has seen its weekly trading volume rise from about $100 million a year ago to more than $3 billion today, according to Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover [1].
While sports contracts currently account for more than 60% of trading volume, Chhugani expects this share to be cut in half by 2030 as institutional markets develop around economics, business, and political contracts [1]. He also anticipates increased hedging demand from corporates and insurance firms exposed to specific event risks [1]. Regulatory clarity at the federal level and the integration of blockchain and cryptocurrencies are expected to further boost market liquidity and growth [1].
New entrants such as Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog are launching their own prediction market verticals, with Robinhood's prediction markets hub now a year old and generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue [1]. Chhugani identifies Robinhood and Coinbase Global as key public market proxies for the private prediction market companies [1].
CONCLUSION
Bernstein's projections indicate that prediction markets are experiencing explosive growth, with volumes expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030. The sector is attracting major financial and tech players, and regulatory clarity alongside blockchain integration is likely to further accelerate expansion. Market participants and investors are closely watching this space for continued innovation and opportunity.