OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong have increased their end-2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to USD 80 per barrel, up from their previous estimate of USD 75 per barrel, citing prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East as a key factor [1]. The strategists highlight that Brent crude has recently traded above USD 90 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran, including recent exchanges of strikes and renewed concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [1].
The report notes that more than five months into the Middle East conflict, oil prices continue to be heavily influenced by geopolitical developments. OCBC points out that negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, contributing to a slower recovery in Middle East oil supply [1].
Additional market constraints include falling inventories, rising transport costs, and emerging diesel shortages, which are now seen as the primary bottleneck rather than crude oil itself. The strategists emphasize that while the oil market has largely adapted to crude supply disruptions, it has done so by depleting existing buffers, leaving the market more vulnerable to further shocks [1].
No specific analyst opinions or forward-looking statements beyond the revised price forecast and ongoing supply risks are mentioned in the source article.
CONCLUSION
OCBC's upward revision of its Brent oil price forecast reflects persistent geopolitical risks and supply constraints in the Middle East. With inventories falling and diesel shortages emerging, the market remains sensitive to further disruptions. The outlook suggests continued volatility and elevated prices as long as geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges persist.