ING economists Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant expect Poland’s final September Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Wednesday, to confirm headline inflation at 4% year-on-year, with core inflation easing and price growth mainly concentrated in fuels and related services [1]. The economists highlight that broad-based inflationary pressure remains absent, and the improved short-term inflation outlook is attributed to renewed cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT, which will remain in effect until the end of 2026 [1].
According to ING, headline CPI is projected to remain within the 3.5–4.0% year-on-year range by the end of the year [1]. The report also notes that the ongoing energy crisis could potentially lead to a jump in regulated prices for households starting in 2027 [1]. Additionally, ING forecasts that Poland’s current account deficit in August was slightly higher than €2 billion, but still lower than in August 2025 [1].
No immediate market reactions or analyst opinions regarding monetary policy changes are mentioned in the article. The focus remains on the stabilization of inflation in the short term due to government interventions in fuel taxation [1].
CONCLUSION
Poland’s inflation outlook has stabilized, with headline CPI expected to remain near 4% year-on-year, supported by cuts in fuel excise duty and VAT. While short-term inflation prospects have improved, potential risks remain from the energy crisis and future regulated price increases.