The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has highlighted in its latest economic outlook, published on September 23, 2026, that the economic growth gap among developing Asian economies is set to widen this year due to the dual impact of a 'likely very strong' El Nino and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in technology exports [1]. Countries such as the Philippines and Cambodia are expected to be hit hardest by the energy crisis and severe El Nino effects, which pose 'serious risks to agricultural production' and threaten both local economies and export potential, particularly in staple crops like rice [1].
In contrast, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam have managed to offset these climate and energy shocks through robust technology exports, with the ADB noting that these nations are 'riding on tech exports despite climate and energy shocks.' The adoption of AI has fueled growth in electronics, semiconductors, and software services, resulting in export growth rates that are significantly higher than regional averages. Technology exports from these countries have increased by double digits year-on-year, while the Philippines and Cambodia have experienced slower growth and rising concerns over inflation and food security [1].
Market analysts cited by the ADB expect this divergence in economic growth to persist throughout the rest of the year. The report identifies the 'AI-driven export boost' as a critical factor separating high-growth economies from those facing stagnation. Technical indicators suggest continued strength in export-oriented markets, while agricultural and energy-dependent countries face downside risks, including lower yields and higher food prices [1].
Market sentiment remains bullish for technology exporters, with analysts recommending a focus on sectors benefiting from AI adoption and resilient supply chains. Conversely, for agricultural and energy-dependent markets, trading advice centers on caution due to elevated risk levels from climate and supply disruptions [1].
CONCLUSION
The ADB's latest outlook underscores a growing divide in developing Asia, with technology-driven economies poised for robust growth while agricultural and energy-dependent nations face mounting risks from El Nino and inflation. Market sentiment favors tech exporters, while caution is advised for economies vulnerable to climate shocks and supply disruptions.