The AUD/USD currency pair traded in a narrow range around 0.6890 during the Asian session on Monday, reflecting a period of consolidation as the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained steady near 101.30 [1]. Market participants are closely watching for the upcoming United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, scheduled for release on Thursday, which is expected to significantly influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [1]. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently an almost 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one interest rate hike this year [1]. Estimates suggest the US economy added 114,000 jobs in June, down from 172,000 in May, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3% [1].
On the Australian side, investors are awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary meeting minutes from the June policy session, where the central bank opted to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% after three consecutive hikes in previous meetings [1]. The minutes, set for release on June 30, are anticipated to provide further insight into the RBA's policy stance and economic outlook [1].
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD remains flat near 0.6890, with a bearish near-term bias as the pair trades below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7003 [1]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 27.70, indicating oversold conditions and suggesting that downside momentum may be stretched, though price action remains capped below the 20-day EMA [1]. Key resistance is identified at the 20-day EMA (0.7003), with a daily close above this level potentially easing selling pressure and opening the path toward the June 15 high at 0.7088 [1]. On the downside, the pair could decline further toward the March 30 low at 0.6833 [1].
The market is expected to remain cautious ahead of the US NFP release and the RBA meeting minutes, both of which could provide fresh direction for the AUD/USD pair [1].
CONCLUSION
AUD/USD is consolidating near 0.6890 as traders await key economic releases from both the US and Australia. The pair's near-term outlook remains bearish, with technical indicators suggesting oversold conditions but no immediate recovery unless resistance levels are breached. Market participants are likely to remain on the sidelines until the US NFP data and RBA minutes offer clearer guidance.