TD Securities strategists have analyzed recent US economic indicators, highlighting a mixed outlook for the US Dollar driven by labor data and consumer confidence figures. The June ISM Manufacturing index is expected to edge down to 53.7, slightly below the consensus estimate of 53.8, with strategists noting that the recent rapid decline in crude prices could influence sector outlooks and inflation expectations [1].
The JOLTS job openings report for May surprised to the upside, coming in at 7,594,000 compared to TD's forecast of 6,900,000 and the consensus of 7,296,000. However, TD Securities believes this figure overstates the true level of openings and anticipates a decline in the next report, citing signals from leading private sector indicators [1].
Consumer sentiment regarding the labor market continued to weaken, with the labor differential (jobs plentiful less jobs hard to get) dropping to 2.4 after a downward revision in May. Despite strong payrolls earlier in 2026, TD Securities characterizes the labor market as stabilizing rather than accelerating, and projects that payrolls will return to breakeven starting with the June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report [1].
June's Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly to 91.2 from 90.6, but this was below both TD's estimate (94.0) and the consensus (94.4). The improvement was mainly in expectations, likely influenced by hopes for an Iran peace deal and lower gasoline prices [1].
CONCLUSION
TD Securities sees the US labor market and consumer confidence as sending mixed signals, with stabilization rather than acceleration expected in employment data. The outlook for the US Dollar remains cautious as key indicators suggest a breakeven in payrolls and subdued consumer sentiment.